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ES Trade Plan & Analysis - Jan 6, 2025

Yearly Overview

  • The One Time Frame Up (OTFU) analysis remains consistent with previous review.

  • ES entered 2025 within its projected range, situated above the 2024 Value Area.

  • Market dynamics suggest a balanced condition for the year 2025.

  • Buyers' Interests:  Buyers are expected to defend the 5800-5815 level, aiming for unfilled GAP and All-Time Highs.

  • Sellers' Interests: Sellers are looking to push ES into the 2024 Value Area (5815–5148).

  • Technical traders note a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, often seen as a precursor to breakdowns. However, seasoned traders recognize that widely observed patterns are prone to market manipulation and should approach with caution.


Monthly Perspective:

  • The monthly trend reflects a balanced condition.

  • January 2025 - ES started within the lower distribution range of December 2024, marking the conclusion of a four-month uptrend.

  • Buyers successfully defended the 5882-5865 support zone, a critical area bolstered by significant purchasing momentum.

  • Short sellers were once again caught off guard.


Weekly Snapshot

  • Last week exhibited One Time Frame Down (OTFD) behavior.

  • The week began with a gap down during the ETH/London session, driven by liquidation pressures. However, election-day rally support held firm

  • ES is trading in balance condition through the latter part of the week.

  • The 5865-5880 zone remains a focal point where buyers consistently fend off selling pressure.


Daily Plan

  • ES currently trades within a 4-day balance, oscillating between 5965 and 6000.

  • Bullish Case:

    • A breakout above 6000 could set targets at 6015 and 6030-6034, with resistance anticipated around 6041 and 6050.

    • Buyers aim to fill the unclosed gap between 6055-6063.


  • Bearish Case:

    • Sellers must maintain control below 5965, eyeing initial targets at 5918 and 5895.

    • However, caution is advised as buyers are expected to provide significant support at 5870-5880. Sellers should be prepared for counter-pressure in this zone.


Upper Chart
Upper Chart

Lower Chart
Lower Chart

SPOT GAMMA EXPOSURE - SPX Jan 5, 2025



 
 
 

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